Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 1.258020 1.326625 1.397832 1.477429 1.564123 1.655914 1.760746
2025-12-21 1.146081 1.241936 1.345688 1.466971 1.605681 1.760367 1.947326
2025-12-28 1.088313 1.201779 1.328256 1.480943 1.661993 1.872041 2.137512
2026-01-04 1.030668 1.154372 1.295373 1.469889 1.682813 1.937867 2.272405
2026-01-11 0.997377 1.131365 1.287197 1.484529 1.731790 2.037140 2.452413
2026-01-18 0.962732 1.103753 1.270576 1.485999 1.762254 2.112736 2.605277
2026-01-25 0.944695 1.094483 1.274687 1.512001 1.823594 2.230113 2.821593
2026-02-01 0.903693 1.054666 1.238454 1.483882 1.811637 2.248054 2.899656
2026-02-08 0.861107 1.010929 1.195074 1.443799 1.780645 2.236887 2.933207
2026-02-15 0.834022 0.985484 1.173617 1.430952 1.784955 2.273762 3.038794
2026-02-22 0.814847 0.969191 1.162979 1.431521 1.807010 2.336129 3.186901
2026-03-01 0.790253 0.944944 1.140867 1.415261 1.804113 2.361410 3.278173
2026-03-08 0.760018 0.913179 1.108709 1.385224 1.781965 2.359612 3.330586
2026-03-15 0.739545 0.893562 1.092009 1.375863 1.789141 2.402321 3.460370
2026-03-22 0.728804 0.886262 1.091316 1.388532 1.828770 2.496771 3.686580
2026-03-29 0.710541 0.868263 1.075326 1.378508 1.833581 2.536306 3.819951
2026-04-05 0.701662 0.862479 1.075694 1.391783 1.874083 2.635381 4.071493
2026-04-12 0.689222 0.851411 1.068243 1.393116 1.895876 2.704806 4.275039
2026-04-19 0.684884 0.851180 1.075772 1.416678 1.953588 2.838510 4.620465
2026-04-26 0.664904 0.828813 1.051298 1.391197 1.931250 2.832289 4.681381
2026-05-03 0.642376 0.802389 1.020344 1.354831 1.889574 2.789469 4.661303
2026-05-10 0.628616 0.787840 1.005956 1.343166 1.887742 2.817313 4.794945
2026-05-17 0.619247 0.779171 0.999719 1.343683 1.905919 2.882242 5.017478